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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Ongoing Risks

Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a premise well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.