🔗 Share this article

A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."

Call for More Extensive Debate

Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."